Sandwasher

NL Central Preview

On to the challengers.

ST. LOUIS

You have to like the Cardinals again, if you’re going to be honest. They didn’t make any huge moves, but they were so solid to begin with that the mere presence of a healthy Scott Rolen should be enough to keep them in contention, (specifically if your idea of ‘contention’ is a 15 game lead). My only hope is that over the winter, LaRussa’s players will have read his pompous book, Three Nights In August, spawning team-wide paranoia and mutiny when they learn they’ve been taking cues from a vegetarian. 1^st place, (with the outside possibility of last).

The Pirates should improve, with their addition of the good Reds and a full season with Zach Duke on the bump. It will be a real boost to their egos if they can slot more than just Jason Bay as their obligatory All-Star rep, but I think they still finish 5^th or 6^th.

The Brewers are young and untested, but they showed a lot of guts last year, playing hard and hustling. Under Ned Yost, they finished .500 for the first time since Reagan was president. If their prospects live up, they could make a run at a wild card spot in a year or two. I just wonder if the players will get nervous once they have to start performing in front of an audience. 4^th place.

I realize that a huge swath of the readership for this publication follows George Bush’s favorite swing-state team, so I welcome any and all demystification for the baffling moves the Reds made this year.

First of all, Sean Casey is a franchise player who you keep for life. I know he was a real jerk in the clubhouse, and unpopular with the fans, but at the very least the guy can hit. Now they have Scott Hatteberg on first. Moneyball be damned, they couldn’t find a first baseman that hit more than 7 homers last year? I hope Casey enjoys Pittsburgh. Tell Joe Randa I said, ‘what’s up.’

Also, I think you keep Wily Mo Pena, not Adam Dunn. He brings more dimensions to the line-up, and only 66% of the strikeouts. Dunn is a cinch for DH. He should have gone to the AL for some pitching. As he clearly demonstrated in today’s opener, he has more than just a hole in his swing.

Still, if Griffey stays healthy again and Bronson Arroyo gets back to the form he exhibited in late 2004 and Lopez takes more of a leadership role, the Reds could turn out to be a gritty bunch of guys who find themselves in the fight for a spot. I don’t see it though. 5^th or 6^th place.

Like Enron, (their former stadium namesake), the shady deals and unrealistic projections that smuggled and embezzled the Astros into October finally catch up to them. Lidge keeps them in the close ones, but the devil comes looking for his dues and little Morgan Ensberg returns to form as a light-hitting white guy. Several Astros do not even survive the season. 3^rd place.

Let me start by saying I am real tired of hearing, “Next year is here.” There is nothing cute about the century-long drought of our team, so I do not appreciate the sarcastic co-option of a fatally loyal fan base into a slogan to sell Mastercards. The fact is, the Cubs have some potentially lethal problems with their roster that, if unaddressed, will result in the firing of the first manager in 30 years to put together back-to-back winning seasons. On the other hand, if Baker could get his team to perform as well for the remaining 161 games, as they do on opening day, we would break all kinds of records.

In Baker’s tenure with our fair city, the Cubs have mounted unstoppable offensive displays on opening day. I wasn’t able to fact check it, but I believe that they have tallied 14, 16, and 16 runs in the last three years. That’s 46 runs in 3 games! Crazy!

All we have to do is channel that same energy we showed today, for 6 more months, and the benefits would be enormous. Following a continuum, Juan Pierre will score 486 runs, Murton will hit 162 homers and drive in 486, and the Cubs will finish undefeated.

However, being a rational person, one who knows the bitter flavor of squashed potential, I realize that the Cubs will not drive in 15.3 rpg. And in all likelihood, they will actually be outscored sometimes. Still, I liked the pesky way they were able to post 7 runs in the 6^th today without really hitting the ball hard, thanks to some clever feints by the Reds’ infield and the stoney hands of their pitching staff. The Cubs’ additions of speed and defense with Pierre, Jacque Jones, and the emergence of Matt Murton and Ronnie Cedeno as regulars will have to make up for the hobbling rotation that everyone is always crowing about. I think they’d be great too if Kerry Wood or Mark Prior, or Wade Miller for that matter, ever got around to pitching. Until May or June, we’ll just have to keep running the score up. It won’t be pretty, but it will be worth it. 2^nd place (with hope it’s good enough for the wild card).

[ Editor's Note:  John Photos is an artist who lives in Chicago.  A little piece of John dies with each Cubs’ season.]